Lakerholics

The NBA Finals starting Wednesday night between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat will be a matchup between a team that made it despite the bubble and a team that made it because of the bubble.

There’s no question these NBA Finals will go down as the strangest in league history considering the five-month suspension due to coronavirus and the three-month restart and playoffs held in the bubble without fans. The long layoff, loss of home court advantage, and lack of fans clearly hurt higher-seeded veteran teams like the Bucks, Clippers, and Raptors while helping lower-seeded younger teams like the Heat, Celtics, and Nuggets.

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Surviving and Thriving in the Bubble!

The West’s top-seed Lakers were the only one of the league’s top four seeds to survive the bubble, which ended up eliminating the 2nd-seed Clippers from the West and the top and 2nd-seed Bucks and Raptors from the East. The Lakers won 5-game series against Damian Lillard and 8th-seed Blazers, James Harden and 4th-seed Rockets, and Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, and 3rd-seed Nuggets, despite playing in the bubble and losing home court.

Meanwhile, the East’s 5th-seed Heat benefitted from playing on a neutral site in the bubble where their young players were able to avoid fan pressure and facing three higher seeds who lost hard-earned home court advantages. Because of the bubble, the Heat swept Victor Oladipo and 4th-seed Pacers in four games, surprised Giannis Antetokounmpo and top-seed Bucks in five games, and took down Jason Tatum and 3rd-seed Celtics in six games.

No disrespect to the Pacers, Bucks, and Celtics but the Lakers are the one veteran team that has not only survived but also thrived in the bubble. They have tamed what critics said was the toughest road to the championship. They dominated in 5 games what was supposed to be the best 8th-seed ever in the Blazers, the most challenging matchup ever in the 4th-seed Rockets, and the best come-back playoff team ever in the 3rd-seed Nuggets.

The NBA Finals matchup the bubble created between the Lakers and Heat is such a mismatch that Miami winning would be the first time in the 68 year history of the Finals that a 5th-seed had ever been crowned as champion.

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The Youth and Experience Factor!

While playing at a neutral site without the pressure of fans has helped the Miami Heat upset three higher seeded teams in the playoffs, age and experience are still likely to be major factors when it comes to the Finals. The Los Angeles Lakers with 35-year old LeBron James and 27-year old Anthony Davis have a clear advantage in age and experience over the Miami Heat with 30-year old Jimmy Butler and 22-year old Bam Adebayo.

Aside from LeBron James, who will be playing in his 10th NBA Finals, the Lakers have three other major players in their rotation who have Finals experience, including Danny Green, Dwight Howard, and Rajon Rondo. The only player on the younger Heat with Finals experience is Andre Iguodala, whom Miami dusted off in their Game 6 win over the Celtics and who’s had success guarding LeBron James in the Finals with the Warriors.

While the Finals won’t be played before fans, the pressure is going to ratchet up on Miami’s young 3-point shooters, who hit 39.1% of their threes against Indiana and 37.3% against Milwaukee but only 32.3% against Boston. Finals experience will be a major factor in who wins the championship. LeBron James is going to be laser focussed on taking full advantage of this opportunity to win his 4th NBA championship and boost his case for GOAT.

The Lakers’ edge in age and experience of their superstars and key role players over the Heat’s stars and players is going to be the challenge the Heat will have to somehow overcome to have a chance to win in the finals.

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Dwight Howard’s the Wild Card!

The Heat are hoping 22-year old All-Star center Bam Adebayo can keep Lakers’ 27-year old superstar Anthony Davis in check while a mix of Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, and Andre Iguodala somehow contains LeBron James. While the chances of that happening are probably remote, the strategy completely ignores Dwight Howard, the wild card in the Lakers’ starting lineup who single-handedly shut down Nikola Jokic in the last series.

Dwight Howard’s likely to be the wild card in these NBA Finals also. The Heat will need to figure out how their current starting lineup is going to defend a dominating Lakers’ front court of James, Davis, and Howard. There’s no way a Heat front court of Robinson, Crowder, and Adebayo can handle the size and physicality of a James, Davis, and Howard front court. The Heat may be forced to change their starting lineup and rotations.

Replacing Robinson, their weak link defensively, with Olynyk or Iguodala is possible but could further hurt the Heat’s struggling offense, which has been dependent on surrounding Adebayo and Butler with 3-point shooters. Miami’s only solution may be to take a page out of the Houston’s playbook and try to beat the Lakers by going small. Only problem is Miami doesn’t have the defense or rebounding to make small ball work against LA.

The bottom line is Spoelstra will need to make adjustments to the Heat’s starting lineup to account for the mismatch the Lakers starting Dwight Howard creates or this Finals is likely to end quickly in four or five games.

No disrespect to Giannis Antetokounmpo or Kawhi Leonard but LeBron James took over Game 5 of the Western Conference Finals and showed the world why, at 35-years old, he’s still the MVP and best player on the planet.

While Antetokounmpo’s Bucks and Leonard’s Clippers succumbed to the perils of the bubble, LeBron’s Lakers rolled through three straight tough opponents with five-game series wins and are headed to the NBA Finals. While a flawed Giannis and Bucks team crumbled in five to the Heat and a overhyped Kawhi and Clippers team blew a 3–1 lead to the Nuggets, LeBron and the Lakers showed how true champions perform in the playoffs.

While Giannis and Kawhi stumbled in the clutch, LeBron closed the Lakers’ final two wins against the Nuggets with four straight stops defending Jamal Murray in Game 4 and four straight baskets to clinch the series in Game 5. LeBron dished out 19 dimes with only 2 turnovers in those two games. He finished Game 5 with 38 points, 16 rebounds, 10 assists, and his 27th playoff triple-double, trailing only Magic’s 30 postseason triple-doubles.

Smartly pacing himself through the playoffs, those last two games were the first in these playoffs where LeBron James played more than 40 minutes, testament to the Lakers’ depth and Frank Vogel’s fine rotation management. These Finals will be James’ 10th as a player, which is more than 27 of the 30 franchises in the league can claim. For the Lakers as a franchise, this will be their 32nd Finals appearance and, if they win, their 17th championship.

As LeBron James again reminded us as he sat relaxed on the floor with the confetti falling as the Lakers accepted the Western Conference Finals trophy, we’re now “one step closer to the goal but the job is still not done.” Standing between the Lakers and their league leading 17th championship are whomever wins the Eastern Conference Finals, in which the 5th seed Miami Heat hold a 3 games to 2 lead over the 3rd seed Boston Celtics.

The emergence of Playoff LeBron has been a transformative moment that could change the historic legacies for him, his superstar teammate Anthony Davis, and the franchise he inherited after the tragic death of Kobe Bryant. The 2020 NBA Playoffs will be momentous to LeBron James’ quest to be the GOAT, Anthony Davis’ odyssey to take the mantle from the King, and the LA Lakers’ challenge to surpass the Boston Celtics for most championships.

With all that on the line, LeBron, AD, and the Lakers only need four more wins to turn the greatest playoff challenge an NBA team has ever faced into the most satisfying and rewarding championship in the league history.

Like Frank said, this is “the out-of-the-bubble, pandemic season,” which in a way is saying it’s another anomaly like the bubble, a variation from the normal regular season.

While the teams won’t be in a strict bubble like in Orlando, it’s not basketball as usual. It’s “a whole new game” and, like in the bubble, the Lakers frankly are the team best prepared to deal with the situation thanks to Rob Pelinka’s great offseason where the team added unprecedented depth and talent.

The overconfident Lakers’ furious fourth quarter rally ran out of gas and Jamal Murray’s clutch dagger three’s in the final 2:17 sealed a Game 3 win and saved the Denver Nuggets from going down 0–3 in the West Finals.

Nuggets’ players and fans may disagree with that assessment of where the Western Conference Finals stand but that’s what an objective comparison of the teams’ strengths and weaknesses and review of the game stats show. While the Nuggets deserve praise for hanging tough the last two games, the Lakers are still the better team with better superstars and a 2–1 lead in the series, despite how well Denver and their two superstars may have played.

All the Nuggets’ desperate win last night did was give them a brief reprieve to keep from going down 0–3. Tomorrow night, their backs are once again against the wall in another ‘must win’ game to keep from going down 1–3. Denver needs to win tomorrow night to keep this series alive because they know the odds of pulling off a third straight 1–3 comeback in these playoffs against a championship caliber Lakers team are close to impossible.

The cocky Lakers came into last night’s game with a 2–0 lead in the West Finals and the knowledge LeBron James is 17–0 when his team takes a 2–0 lead in a playoff series. Unfortunately, they forgot to bring their A-Game. The desperate Nuggets were the hungrier and more aggressive team, dominating the boards 53–34, winning the 3-point shootout by 15 points, making 9 more free throws, and building a 20-point fourth quarter lead.

With 10:24 left in the game, the Lakers came roaring back behind Rondo’s defense and LeBron’s offense and, in a stunning 4 minute 17 second burst, slashed the Nuggets’ 20-point lead to 3 points with 6:07 left on the clock. The game seesawed back and forth until, with just 2:17 left on the clock, Jamal Murray hit a dagger three to put the Nuggets up by 7 and then, with 53.3 seconds left, a second dagger three from 29 feet to seal the win.

Murray’s heroics, like Davis’ the game before, were the difference between winning and losing and the series now stands 2–1 in favor of the Lakers. The Nuggets can wish it were 2–1 in their favor but it could easily be 0–3. They dodged a bullet just like the Lakers did when Davis hit that game winning three. Bottom line, their backs are against the wall again tomorrow night when they must win or once again fall into that familiar 1–3 hole.

The problem the Nuggets face is the Lakers are unlikely to come out flat tomorrow night. The Lakers now know the Nuggets are capable of beating them and are going to come out treating the matchup like a close-out game. The Lakers know they let last night’s game get out of control and rallied too late. LeBron’s on a crusade to win his fourth NBA championship and AD’s going to be hungry to redeem his lackluster performance in Game 3.

The Lakers are going to come out looking to dominate the Nuggets early and coast to a wire-to-wire win. Here are the five reasons why the Lakers will win Game 4 and put the Denver Nuggets on the brink of elimination:

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1. Playoff LeBron Will Emerge.

To be honest, the Lakers haven’t needed Playoff LeBron this postseason. However, last night’s loss and insinuations age and mileage are finally catching up with him are exactly what Lebron thrives on for motivation. James has only played 34.4 minutes per game in these playoffs, averaging just 25.9 points, 10.0 rebounds, and 8.8 assists. In the 2018 playoffs, he played 41.9 minutes and averaged 34.0 points, 9.1 boards, and 9.0 assists.

The Lakers are now in the stretch run. With two wins to the Finals and six wins to the championship, it’s time for Playoff LeBron to take over. Look for LeBron to play 40 minutes with a monster triple double in a Game 4 win.

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2. Anthony Davis Will Redeem Himself.

While he had 27 points on 9–17 from the field and 9–10 from the line, AD had a disappointing Game 3, especially after his clutch game-winning buzzer-beating heroics to win Game 2. He has openly admitted as much. Davis was passive the entire game, only grabbed two rebounds, and was never a factor with the game on the line. He simply did not deliver a performance worthy of a top-five superstar and team’s second best player.

But Anthony will get an opportunity to redeem himself tomorrow night when the Lakers look to win Game 4, take a 3–1 series lead, and put Denver on the brink of elimination. AD needs to play 40 minutes and dominate.

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3. Lakers Defense Will Dominate.

The Lakers had the third best defense during the regular season and have the fourth best defense in the playoffs. Their team identity is defense and they pride themselves on their ability to stop opposing teams’ superstars. They shut down Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum in the first round of the playoffs and James Harden and Russell Westbrook in the second round. They’re confident they can do the same to Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic.

L.A. may have found the defensive key in the fourth quarter last night as their zone held Denver to just 21 points with a 77.8 defensive rating. Look for Frank Vogel to use that zone to crank up the pressure in Game 4.

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4. Lakers Will Control the Boards.

The Lakers are the bigger and better rebounding team, 9th in the regular season with 45.7 rebounds per game versus the Nuggets 20th with 44.1. In the playoffs, LA is 7th with 44.0 boards and Denver 13th with 41.4 boards. In the two games they won, the Lakers outrebounded the Nuggets 39 to 34. In the one game they lost, however, the Nuggets dominated the boards 53–34, which is why they were able to build a 20-point lead in the fourth.

One of the Lakers’ strengths as a team is their edge in size and athleticism, which usually translates into winning the rebounding battle. The Lakers will come out and impose their domination on the glass tomorrow night.

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5. The Lakers Will Make their Threes.

When opposing teams pack the paint and dare the Lakers to shoot from deep, they need to make their threes to win. In the two games the Lakers won, they shot 38.7% from deep. In last night’s loss, they only shot 23.1%. In the ten playoff games the Lakers won, they shot 39.2% from deep. In the three games they lost, they only shot 22.9%. For the series, the Lakers have shot 34.1% from deep, just a notch below their 35.5% playoff average.

One of the Lakers’ vulnerabilities is their average 3-point shooting, which is why opponents try to clog the lane and force the Lakers to shoot from deep. Fortunately, the numbers strongly suggest the Lakers will make their threes.