Lakerholics

A funny thing happened on the way to the Lakers playing big against a Heat team that lacked the size and physicality to match up with the Lakers front court. Frank Vogel decided it was time for the Lakers to embrace small ball.

Showing once again that he wasn’t afraid to make big changes midstream, With the Lakers trailing 23-10 just five minutes into Game 1, Vogel replaced Dwight Howard with Kyle Kuzma to go small with Anthony Davis at center. For a head coach who had consistently favored playing two bigs for the regular season and every series other than against the small ball Rockets, this was a bold move that changed the direction of the game and series.

While most teams opt to play small to turbo charge their offense or force the opposing team to adjust their defense, Vogel went small for the same reason he makes all of his strategic decisions or personnel moves: defense. What Vogel and the Lakers discovered when forced to go small against the Rockets in the second round was their small lineup with Anthony Davis at the five was actually a quicker, faster, and more athletic defensive team.

That small ball defensive adjustment was exactly what the Lakers needed as they went on an 83–44 run from the 7:05 mark in the first quarter through the end of the third quarter, going from 13 points down to up 26 points. Howard played just 15 minutes, McGee got a DNP, and the Lakers played two thirds of the game with Anthony Davis or Markieff Morris at the five as their defense dominated and shut down the high powered Heat offense.

While Vogel was reluctant to make lineup changes during the regular season except to replace injured players, he’s demonstrated he understands the greater urgency and need to make quicker adjustments in the playoffs. He replaced McGee with Morris to go small against the Rockets, Howard for McGee to matchup against Jokic against the Nuggets, and now Kuzma and Morris for Howard with Davis moving to the five against the Heat.

Vogel’s putting together an impressive resume as a savvy playoff coach whose arsenal of defensive tactics have essentially shut down Damian Lillard, James Harden, Nikola Jokic, Jamal Murray, and the entire Heat roster. He’s stayed true to his core belief defense starts with protecting the rim but understands speed, quickness, and athleticism from going small can also win matchups defensively, especially when you have Anthony Davis.

It’s a shame the NBA only considers the regular season when awarding honors for best job as head coach because Frank Vogel deserved more recognition. Hands down, he should have been the Coach of the Year.

There’s more at stake in these NBA Finals than just surviving the bubble, defeating the Miami Heat, and winning the league championship. LeBron James and Anthony Davis are also chasing the Ghosts of Laker Legends.

They’re on a holy quest to honor Kobe Bryant by winning the Lakers’ 17th championship and have their retired jerseys hanging together in the rafters at Staples alongside legendary duos Magic and Kareem and Kobe and Shaq. Winning this championship is just another step in a grand master plan to catapult LeBron James past Michael Jordan as the GOAT and Anthony Davis past Giannis Antetokounmpo as the next Best Player on the Planet.

LeBron knew he needed more than just championships to become the greatest ever. He needed a bigger platform to provide him with the ultimate opportunity to become a hero, which is why he signed with the Lakers. Winning a first championship for his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers was great but resurrecting the Los Angeles Lakers and leveraging their big market advantages to put a crown on his legacy as the king was the key.

The Miami Heat are just the unfortunate team in the way of LeBron’s grand plan, not unlike the New Orleans Pelicans who suffered the misfortune of having the young superstar James and his team at Klutch Sports coveted. And while coronavirus and the bubble threatened to derail the plan, LeBron and Anthony were able to prevail and dodge the bullets that took down the Milwaukee Bucks and Los Angeles Clippers and make it to the Finals.

Now they find themselves just three wins away from winning the first of what could be multiple NBA championships together, an achievement that will open up opportunities to make the Lakers even better next season. While the offseason talk will be focused on the return of the Golden State Warriors and the ascent of the Brooklyn Nets, the threat contenders should be worrying about is the Los Angeles Lakers building another dynasty.

While the Lakers still need to take care of business and finish off the Miami Heat, LeBron James, Rich Paul, and Rob Pelinka are already strategizing on short and long term moves to transform the Lakers into an NBA dynasty. Short term goals could include luring a top free agent like Jerami Grant to force a sign-and-trade or a young superstar like Victor Oladipo, who’ll be a free agent next offseason, to force a trade to the Lakers ala Anthony Davis.

Long term goals could include LeBron re-signing at a discounted salary to create the cap space for the Lakers to sign a third superstar like Giannis Antetokounmpo to help win now and take over after LeBron finally retires. Another enticing and realistic option down the road could be the Lakers signing Atlanta Hawks’ dynamic young point guard Trae Young, who just signed a contract for Rich Paul of Klutch Sports to become his agent.

There’s no doubt LeBron James, the Los Angeles Lakers, and Klutch Sports are working in concert help James in his crusade to pass Michael Jordan as the GOAT and Davis in his mission to win the Best Player in the World title. This championship will be a key step towards executing the grand master plan that started with LeBron James signing with LA two years ago. Lakers fans should get ready to enjoy a fun dizzying ride over the next few years.

The sky is the limit right now for the resurgent Los Angeles Lakers as superstars LeBron James and Anthony Davis are following a grand master plan for NBA domination and chasing the Ghosts of Lakers Legends.

Whether regular season or the playoffs, the NBA is all about the matchups. Because offense and defense in a playoff series is often more of a team than individual effort, lineup and rotations matchups can determine the winner.

How the Los Angeles Lakers and Miami Heat answer the following three critical questions about the specific lineups and rotations they plan to use in the next four to seven games could determine who wins the NBA Finals:

1. What Do the Heat Do When the Lakers Go Big?

The first key matchup question the Heat are going to have to answer if they hope to upset the Lakers and win the NBA Finals is what do they do when the Lakers go big with Dwight Howard, Anthony Davis, and LeBron James? Miami’s starting front court of Bam Adebayo, Jae Crowder, and Duncan Robinson doesn’t match up well against the Lakers’ super-sized front court, which means the Heat may be forced to change their starting lineup.

The Lakers’ Howard, Davis, and James front court is a nightmare matchup for the Heat because they ideally need Bam Adebayo to defend Anthony Davis but Duncan Robinson or Jae Crowder cannot guard Dwight Howard. To make matters worse, even if Adebayo defends Howard, there’s no way Crowder and Robinson will be able to guard Davis and James, which means Miami is likely going to be forced to change their starting backcourt.

This is the matchup that is likely to doom the Heat because it’s going to force them to replace Duncan Robinson, a player whose elite 3-point shooting their offense depends upon, with either Kelly Olynyk or Andre Iguodala. Miami has two options: bring in Olynyk to defend Howard, allowing Adebayo to guard Davis and Crowder to guard James, or bring in Iguodala to defend James, leaving Adebayo on Howard and Crowder on Davis.

Either option is fraught with peril. Adebayo, Crowder, and Iguodala may have a better chance of limiting Howard, Davis, and James than Olynyk, Adebayo, and Crowder even though Bam wouldn’t be guarding Anthony. The Lakers’ advantage in sheer size, talent, and experience in the front court is what makes them the prohibitive favorites in this series. The Heat’s only options may be get Howard in early foul trouble or to go small.

2. What Do the Lakers Do When the Heat Go Small?

The Heat’s best strategy against the Lakers’ big lineup could be to go small and try to force the Lakers to match up by replacing Dwight Howard with Markieff Morris at power forward and moving Anthony Davis to the five. There’s no question that a front court of Adebayo, Crowder, and Robinson or maybe Iguodala versus Davis, Morris, and James would be a much better matchup for the Heat than having to go against Howard, Davis, and James.

The good news for the Heat is that the Lakers normally play their version of small ball with Anthony Davis playing the five around half the time. The bad news is Frank Vogel could surprise everybody and play big all game long. While JaVale McGee has not played great recently, he did play well in the two wins the Lakers had over the Heat back at the end of 2019 and there’s an argument to be made playing two bigs against the Heat could be smart.

One of the Miami Heat’s weaknesses is their lack of a capable defensive center to backup Bam Adebayo and the Lakers going big for the entire game could scramble all of Erik Spoelstra’s planned defensive strategies and rotations. While Howard will likely start and play 30 minutes for the Lakers, there’s a good chance Vogel will give McGee a chance to redeem himself, keep Howard the out of foul trouble, and test whether he can be effective against the Heat.

While a Lakers’ front court of Davis, Morris, and James may be easier for the Heat to match up against, it also may be the Lakers best lineup at both ends of the court, providing better 3-point shooting and quicker rotations. Regardless of what Vogel decides, the Lakers will still have an advantage in the front court whether they stay big with Howard or McGee at the five or go small with Davis at the five against the Heat’s normal starting lineup.

3. What Do the Lakers Do When the Heat play Zone?

One way the Heat might be able to cover for their mismatch disadvantage in the front court against the Lakers is to deploy a 2–3 zone defense, which has been a key element of their defensive game plans throughout the playoffs. The zone could enable them to keep their starting front court of Adebayo, Crowder, and Robinson on the floor, especially when the Lakers went big with Howard or Mcgee at the five. They used the Zone against LA before.

Deploying the 2–3 zone against the Lakers could be a smart strategy for the Heat to test because capable and consistent 3-point shooting, which is one of Los Angeles’ weaknesses, is a critical criteria to beating zone defenses. Unfortunately, the other way smart teams beat zones is to get the ball to a superstar zone buster like LeBron James or Anthony Davis in the heart of the zone at the free throw line where they can either score or facilitate.

In fact, that’s exactly what the Lakers did to beat the Heat zone in the games the Lakers won in November and December 2019. Posting LeBron James and Anthony Davis in the middle led to a plethora of easy points and assists. Spoelstra will have to come up with new wrinkles for the Heat’s 2–3 zone to confuse the Lakers this time around but playing zone is definitely a way for Miami to avoid having to change their normal lineups and rotations.

Look for the Lakers to also exploit the weaknesses of teams playing zones, namely poor offensive rebounding and transition defense because each defender doesn’t have a specific responsibility for any one offensive player. Frank Vogel and the Lakers’ coaching staff are going to have the Lakers ready to take advantage of the Heat’s 2-3 zone, especially when they go big. Laker centers will be sprinting down court looking for touchdown passes.

The rumors head coach Frank Vogel may decide to return to starting JaVale McGee rather than staying with Dwight Howard as the Lakers’ starting center against the Heat in the upcoming 2020 NBA Finals are worrisome.

Howard has not only played far better than McGee in Conference Finals but also has consistently outplayed him in the second half of the regular season and in the seeding and first two rounds of playoff games played in the bubble. With Howard starting and helping the Lakers win the last two games to clinch the West Finals, it seems foolhardy for Frank Vogel to even consider making a change before the four most important games of the season.

Now is not the time for misplaced loyalty to displaced starting center JaVale Mcgee to derail what has worked well for the Lakers in the last two rounds to dispatch the scruffy small-ball Rockets and the gritty come-back Nuggets. The Heat, with All-Star center Bam Adebayo, resemble the Nuggets more than the Rockets or Blazers and the Lakers should deploy a defensive game plan built around starting Dwight Howard at center to shut down Adebayo.

Vogel needs to be careful not to overthink the situation. Don’t rock the boat and make changes after the team just played their best two games of the playoffs. Here are four reasons why the Lakers should start Dwight Howard:

1. Howard’s a Better Defensive Matchup Against Adebayo!

While he is not the 3-point threat Nikola Jokic was, Miami’s Bam Adebayo presents similar defensive problems as a scorer, rebounder, and passer, posting 32 points, 14 rebounds, and 5 assists in the Boston close out game. Stopping Adebayo is the Lakers top priority as Bam dominated the Eastern Conference Finals, averaging a team-best 21.8 points, team-best 11.0 rebounds, and team-best 5.2 assists in team-high 39.1 minutes per game.

Bam is the offensive engine that powers the Heat’s game and that’s why the Lakers would be smart to use the same strategy they used to stop Jokic and start Howard and have him on the floor whenever Adebayo’s in the game. Howard posted a team-best defensive rating of 100.0 in the Nuggets series in 20.2 minutes per game, dramatically better than the 110.5 defensive rating posted by JaVale McGee in the 7.6 minutes per game he played.

Just four wins from their 17th NBA championship, the Lakers should keep the same starting lineup that shut down Nikola Jokic in the conference finals and start Dwight Howard to defend Bam Adebayo in the NBA Finals,

2. The Lakers’ Offense Runs Better with Howard at Center!

Neither Dwight Howard or JaVale McGee are going to score many points or dish out many assists from the center position but the screens they set and offensive rebounds they grab can be critical to the Lakers’ offense working. Howard was a key component to the Lakers’ offensive success against the Nuggets, posting a team-best 123.5 offensive rating for the series compared to JaVale McGee’s 97.4 offensive rating for 7.6 minutes per game played.

Unlike the Nuggets’ Jokic, the Heat’s Bam Adebayo is a excellent defensive rebounder, good team defender, and elite rim protector as he showed with his great game-saving block against Jayson Tatum in the conference finals. The Lakers will need Dwight Howard’s physical screen setting, aggressive offensive rebounding, and dominating power dunking off lobs to keep Bam Adebayo busy defensively and prevent him from defending Anthony Davis.

Starting Dwight will make the Lakers’ offense run better as the Heat will have to focus on keeping him off the boards and preventing him from getting easy dunks off lobs when LeBron or Rondo penetrate the paint.

3. Starting Howard Will Force Miami To Adjust Lineups!

The Miami Heat would love the Lakers to go small with Anthony Davis at the five and Markieff Morris at the four, which would enable them to have Adebayo guard Davis, Crowder guard James, and Robinson defend Morris. What they don’t want is the Lakers to start Howard because that’s going to expose Robinson and force them to replace him with Olynyk or Iguodala in the starting lineup to matchup against the Lakers big-three front court.

But replacing Robinson with Iguodala or Olynyk doesn’t eliminate the matchup nightmare created by Howard. Starting Dwight puts the Heat in a bind. Who does Bam Adebayo cover? Anthony Davis or Dwight Howard? There’s no way Robinson, Crowder, and Adedayo can defend James, Davis, and Howard. The Heat could go small and try to play McGee off the floor but Howard’s elite physicality and athleticism would force them to adjust.

Starting Dwight will give the Lakers a James, Davis, and Howard front court whose athleticism and physicality will create an absolute nightmare matchup and force the Heat to change their lineups and rotations.

4. Howard Will Be More Likely To Re–Sign Next Season!

The Lakers need to think about their future. Dwight Howard’s emergence in the playoffs as a major difference maker changes the dynamic for next season, especially in light of JaVale McGee’s continued diminished performances. Dwight’s an unrestricted free agent this offseason and there’s already rumors of the Boston Celtics offering him their MLE and a chance to start. Vogel starting Dwight in the Finals could be the key to him re-signing.

While the Lakers may still have their eye on DeMarcus Cousins as their perfect starting center for next season, there’s also no question Howard has shown he can still be an elite defensive center as well as a great teammate. Dwight deserves the opportunity to start in the NBA Finals and hopefully Frank Vogel and his staff see that and understand how the decision whether to start him or JaVale McGee could determine his future as a Laker.

The Lakers would be smart to stick with the lineup that won them the Western Conference Finals and start Dwight Howard at center. It’s the kind of move that could convince Dwight Howard to finish his career as a Laker.

The NBA Finals starting Wednesday night between the Los Angeles Lakers and the Miami Heat will be a matchup between a team that made it despite the bubble and a team that made it because of the bubble.

There’s no question these NBA Finals will go down as the strangest in league history considering the five-month suspension due to coronavirus and the three-month restart and playoffs held in the bubble without fans. The long layoff, loss of home court advantage, and lack of fans clearly hurt higher-seeded veteran teams like the Bucks, Clippers, and Raptors while helping lower-seeded younger teams like the Heat, Celtics, and Nuggets.

Surviving and Thriving in the Bubble!

The West’s top-seed Lakers were the only one of the league’s top four seeds to survive the bubble, which ended up eliminating the 2nd-seed Clippers from the West and the top and 2nd-seed Bucks and Raptors from the East. The Lakers won 5-game series against Damian Lillard and 8th-seed Blazers, James Harden and 4th-seed Rockets, and Jamal Murray, Nikola Jokic, and 3rd-seed Nuggets, despite playing in the bubble and losing home court.

Meanwhile, the East’s 5th-seed Heat benefitted from playing on a neutral site in the bubble where their young players were able to avoid fan pressure and facing three higher seeds who lost hard-earned home court advantages. Because of the bubble, the Heat swept Victor Oladipo and 4th-seed Pacers in four games, surprised Giannis Antetokounmpo and top-seed Bucks in five games, and took down Jason Tatum and 3rd-seed Celtics in six games.

No disrespect to the Pacers, Bucks, and Celtics but the Lakers are the one veteran team that has not only survived but also thrived in the bubble. They have tamed what critics said was the toughest road to the championship. They dominated in 5 games what was supposed to be the best 8th-seed ever in the Blazers, the most challenging matchup ever in the 4th-seed Rockets, and the best come-back playoff team ever in the 3rd-seed Nuggets.

The NBA Finals matchup the bubble created between the Lakers and Heat is such a mismatch that Miami winning would be the first time in the 68 year history of the Finals that a 5th-seed had ever been crowned as champion.

The Youth and Experience Factor!

While playing at a neutral site without the pressure of fans has helped the Miami Heat upset three higher seeded teams in the playoffs, age and experience are still likely to be major factors when it comes to the Finals. The Los Angeles Lakers with 35-year old LeBron James and 27-year old Anthony Davis have a clear advantage in age and experience over the Miami Heat with 30-year old Jimmy Butler and 22-year old Bam Adebayo.

Aside from LeBron James, who will be playing in his 10th NBA Finals, the Lakers have three other major players in their rotation who have Finals experience, including Danny Green, Dwight Howard, and Rajon Rondo. The only player on the younger Heat with Finals experience is Andre Iguodala, whom Miami dusted off in their Game 6 win over the Celtics and who’s had success guarding LeBron James in the Finals with the Warriors.

While the Finals won’t be played before fans, the pressure is going to ratchet up on Miami’s young 3-point shooters, who hit 39.1% of their threes against Indiana and 37.3% against Milwaukee but only 32.3% against Boston. Finals experience will be a major factor in who wins the championship. LeBron James is going to be laser focussed on taking full advantage of this opportunity to win his 4th NBA championship and boost his case for GOAT.

The Lakers’ edge in age and experience of their superstars and key role players over the Heat’s stars and players is going to be the challenge the Heat will have to somehow overcome to have a chance to win in the finals.

Dwight Howard’s the Wild Card!

The Heat are hoping 22-year old All-Star center Bam Adebayo can keep Lakers’ 27-year old superstar Anthony Davis in check while a mix of Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder, and Andre Iguodala somehow contains LeBron James. While the chances of that happening are probably remote, the strategy completely ignores Dwight Howard, the wild card in the Lakers’ starting lineup who single-handedly shut down Nikola Jokic in the last series.

Dwight Howard’s likely to be the wild card in these NBA Finals also. The Heat will need to figure out how their current starting lineup is going to defend a dominating Lakers’ front court of James, Davis, and Howard. There’s no way a Heat front court of Robinson, Crowder, and Adebayo can handle the size and physicality of a James, Davis, and Howard front court. The Heat may be forced to change their starting lineup and rotations.

Replacing Robinson, their weak link defensively, with Olynyk or Iguodala is possible but could further hurt the Heat’s struggling offense, which has been dependent on surrounding Adebayo and Butler with 3-point shooters. Miami’s only solution may be to take a page out of the Houston’s playbook and try to beat the Lakers by going small. Only problem is Miami doesn’t have the defense or rebounding to make small ball work against LA.

The bottom line is Spoelstra will need to make adjustments to the Heat’s starting lineup to account for the mismatch the Lakers starting Dwight Howard creates or this Finals is likely to end quickly in four or five games.