Lakerholics

Marc may be untradable at this point so Lakers may have to include a sweetener to move him for a more mobile defender. What we need is not necesarily a rim protector but a modern center who can block shots and defend on the perimeter. Nerlens Noel from Knicks or WCS from Mavs.

Like the photo above, every championship is a snapshot of a moment to be savored and cherished when everything went right and a team won the ultimate prize but not a promise that can be repeated or three-peated.

Life goes on and winning has its costs and rewards. For superstars like LeBron James and Anthony Davis, championship windows open. For other Lakers, major career decisions loom and financial opportunities beckon. Rajon Rondo, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Avery Bradley, and JaVale McGee have big player option decisions to consider while Dwight Howard and Markieff Morris have serious free agent financial opportunities to ponder.

Rob Pelinka will face a big challenge trying to keep players like Rondo, KCP, Howard, and Morris who will have strong value based on how well they played in the playoffs and will have to use the team’s MLE to keep them. That means the only way the Lakers can upgrade their roster will be via a trade, with Kyle Kuzma as the primary trading chip, Danny Green and JaVale McGee as filler, and their first round pick as the deal sweetener.

So here’s my final grade for each player on the Lakers’ roster and my prediction whether they will leave or stay with the team going forward:

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1. LeBron James – Grade: (A+), Prediction: Stays

What more can you say. Unanimous Finals MVP, still the best player on the planet, and showing zero signs of slowing down. The engine powering the Lakers all season long and the heart and soul of their championship effort.

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2. Anthony Davis – Grade: (A), Prediction: Stays

The perfect complement to LeBron James and still not close to his prime. AD’s the second best player on the planet and future face of the franchise. He’ll exercise his player option and re-sign 1+1 max contract with Lakers.

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3. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – Grade: (A-), Prediction: Stays

KCP gets my vote as the third best player on the Lakers both for his outstanding regular season and clutch performance in the playoffs. He’ll exercise his player option and re-sign with Lakers for $12 million.

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4. Rajon Rondo – Grade: (A-), Prediction: Stays

Rajon Rondo elevated his game and proved the Playoff Rondo moniker was real and he was still capable of being an elite player. He’ll exercise his player option but re-sign to play with LeBron and AD with a raise to $6 million.

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5. Alex Caruso – Grade: (B+), Prediction: Stays

AC Fresh showed he deserved to play big minutes on the biggest stage and will continue to be a key component in the Lakers’ rotation. He should be untouchable when it comes to being traded and a key perimeter defender.

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6. Markieff Morris – Grade: (B+), Prediction: Stays

Markieff Morris was the key to unleashing Anthony Davis at the five and will one of the Lakers’ top priorities in free agency this offseason for that reason. Markieff will re-sign with the Lakers and get a raise to $6 million.

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7. Dwight Howard – Grade: (B), Prediction: Stays

Dwight Howard’s gamble on taking a non-guaranteed contract with the Lakers will payoff big and he will be a coveted free agent this offseason. He will ultimately re-sign at a discount with the Lakers for $4 million.

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8. Kyle Kuzma – Grade: (B-), Prediction: Leaves

While Kuz made great progress this season as a defender, playmaker, and team player, he still plays the same starting position as LeBron and AD. Kyle deserves a starting role and salary. Lakers will trade him this offseason.

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9. Danny Green – Grade: (B-), Prediction: Leaves

Danny Green played better than his personal stats indicated, posting top three net and plus/minus ratings showing his value goes beyond stats. Unfortunately, his $15 million expiring salary will be needed in a trade.

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10. JaVale McGee – Grade: (C+), Prediction: Leaves

While JaVale played well early in the season, his play the second half of the season and playoffs declined considerably. He will decline his player option for the money but will be included in a trade with Kuzma and Green.

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11. Avery Bradley – Grade: (C+), Prediction: Stays

Avery was an integral part of the Lakers’ regular season success but his decision to skip the playoffs for family reasons diminishes his final grade. He will decline his player option and stay part of the Lakers’ rotation.

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12. Talen Horton-Tucker – Grade: (C+), Prediction: Stays

THT showed he has a future with the Lakers by his excellent playoff play. Depending on what happens with the roster, he could work his way into the rotation for next season. Or he could end up being trade sweetener.

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12. Jared Dudley – Grade: (C), Prediction: Leaves

Jared Dudley filled his role as a veteran mentor and role model with the Lakers to perfection and was rewarded with a championship ring. Dudley will likely retire after this season and join some team’s coaching staff.

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13. Quinn Cook – Grade: (C), Prediction: Leaves

Quinn Cook had moments during the regular season as a championship experienced mentor and the Lakers designated break-glass-in-case-of-emergency shooter. His contract is may be guaranteed if needed for a trade.

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14. Dion Waiters – Grade: (C-), Prediction: Leaves

Dion Waiters had some promising moments during the seeding games but his performance ultimately couldn’t earn Vogel’s trust as a defender. Dion earned his championship ring but his time with the Lakers is done.

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15. J.R. Smith – Grade: (C-), Prediction: Leaves

Despite being a last minute replacement for Avery Bradley, J.R. Smith got a few opportunities to shoot his way into the rotation during the playoffs but couldn’t take advantage of them. He gets a ring but will be moving on.

We may still be a month and a half away from NBA teams being able to sign free agents and make trades but you can bet Rob Pelinka and the Lakers’ front office are already discussing strategic moves to remain atop the NBA.

And they know for certain that the front offices of the Milwaukee Bucks, Los Angeles Clippers, Brooklyn Nets, and Golden State Warriors are already starting to put together plans to catch and surpass the Lakers next year. That means standing pat and rolling out the same roster that dominated and won the championship this year is not an option. If the Lakers want a chance to repeat and keep a threepeat alive, they need to get better.

That means Pelinka working with his front office and coaching staffs to identify the team’s needs and pulling off the right moves to fix the roster’s shortcomings and make next year’s Lakers an even better and deeper team. Heading the list of Lakers’ needs are a third scorer and elite 3-point shooter they can trust to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis, which could be challenging considering the Lakers’ limited trade assets.

The first candidate we’re going to consider to fill that role is Sacramento Kings’ shooting guard Buddy Hield, who lost his starting job last season after having signed a 4-year $84 million extension that takes effect next season. The 27-year old, 6’4,” 220 lbs Hield is a 5-year NBA vet who averaged 19.2 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 3.0 assists in 30.8 minutes per game last year, shooting 42.9% from the field, 39.4% from deep, and 84.6% from the line.

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What are the Terms of the Proposed Trade?

The basic parameters of the trade would be 25-year old, 3-year veteran power forward Kyle Kuzma and 33-year old, 11-year veteran shooting guard Danny Green for 27-year old, 5-year veteran shooting guard Buddy Hield.

Should the Lakers be determined to land Hield and the Kings demanding a sweetener, the Lakers could include the 28th pick in the first round of the November 18 draft or talented young shooting guard Talen Horton-Tucker.

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Why Would the Lakers Agree to the Trade?

Hield would give the Lakers the reliable third scorer and elite 3-point shooter they need to complement LeBron James and Anthony Davis. Buddy is a proven 20-points per game scorer and career 41.1% shooter from deep. While he’s not the defender Green is, he’s six years younger and exactly what the Lakers need offensively. He also has the size and athleticism to be a better defender when immersed in Frank Vogel’s defense-first culture.

While the Lakers love Kyle Kuzma’s growth as a defender, playmaker, and rebounder, the reality is he’s a starter quality player who plays the same positions as the team’s two superstars and their most valuable trading chip. The timing is also right now to move Kuzma, who will become a restricted free agent after next season and will certainly attract offers worthy of a starter, especially if he improves his average 3-point shooting prowess.

As for Danny Green, he’s still been one of the Lakers’ highest ranked players when it comes to net ratings and plus/minus despite struggling at times with his 3-point shooting and on-ball defense against small, quicker guards. While the Lakers will miss Green’s leadership and defense, Hield can slide right into Green’s starting slot and give the Lakers’ that elusive third scorer and elite 3-point shooter they need to complement LeBron and AD.

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Why Would the Kings Agree to the Trade?

It’s obvious Buddy Hield has a problem with Sacramento head coach Luke Walton, who demoted him to the bench in favor of Bogdan Bogdanovic despite the Kings having just signed him to a 4-year, $84 million extension. Now that Walton’s been given a vote of confidence from new Kings general manager Monte McNair, it’s almost a certainty Hield will be moved, especially since he’s apparently refused to return coach Walton’s calls.

Luke Walton has always been a fan of Kuzma and the Kings and Lakers had discussions before the last trade deadline involving Kyle and Bogdan Bogdanovic, whom the Kings obviously view as Buddy Hield’s replacement. Green could slide right into Hield’s backup two guard role and give the Kings needed perimeter defense and veteran leadership. Replacing the disgruntled Hield with Green would help Walton build team chemistry.

Swapping Hield’s 4-year, $84 million deal with Green’s $15 million expiring contract makes good business sense for the small market Kings considering the uncertain economy the team is facing due to the coronavirus pandemic. The trade would also give new GM Monte McNair financial flexibility going forward. Beside addition by subtraction, it would give the Kings a chance to see what Kuzma and Green can bring without a long term commitment.

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What Are the Chances the Trade Happens?

Predicting a trade in today’s NBA is like picking 100 to 1 long shots because there are so many moving pieces and other possible options for teams and many trades simply happen because of the relationships between GMs. While Buddy Hield is going to be traded, the big questions are always what do the Kings think about Danny Green and Kyle Kuzma and what are other teams willing to offer. Hield is a talented young player who will be coveted.

There’s been no shortage of NBA teams rumored to have interest in trading for Buddy Hield. At the top of the list are the Philadelphia 76ers, Brooklyn Nets, Milwaukee Bucks, Dallas Mavericks, as well as the Los Angeles Lakers. We’ll have to wait until the NBA and NBPA agree when teams can sign free agents and trade players to find out but we know the Kings like Kuzma, Green’s a great short term fit, and the trade frees up options for McNair.

There are bigger targets the Lakers could pursue and there’s always the issue of not wanting to commit to more than 1-year deals to save cap space to chase Giannis but there’s also the pressure with LeBron to win now. Frankly, the Lakers might be wise to jump at the opportunity to trade Kuzma and Green for a proven young talent like Hield rather than waiting and gambling again like they did with Kawhi. Hield would be a perfect fit.

While Lakers fans should celebrate the joy of seeing their team crowned as NBA champions, they should be just as excited about the expansion of their team’s championship window and the opportunity for another dynasty.

No disrespect to Giannis and the Bucks; Kawhi, PG, and the Clippers; Steph, Klay, and the Warriors; or KD, Kyrie, and the Nets, but LeBron, AD, and the Lakers are the ones poised to dominate over the next five years of the NBA. Underestimated and underappreciated, the Lakers not only survived the loss of fans and home court advantage and rigors of the bubble but thrived on the pressure and clearly proved they were the best team in the league.

The Lakers’ dominating championship run proved this team possesses the five keys that transformed previous Los Angeles title teams into dynasties: best point guard, center, coach, general manager, and owner in the league. LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Frank Vogel, Rob Pelinka, and Jeanie Buss are modern reincarnations of storied Lakers’ Hall of Famers Magic Johnson, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Phil Jackson, Jerry West, and Dr. Jerry Buss.

While that might seem preposterous at first glance, the playoffs definitely showed the Lakers not only have the two best superstars and deepest roster in the league but are in a position to make moves to be even better. Quibble all you want, the Lakers dominated every round of the playoffs, beating the Portland Blazers, Houston Rockets, and Denver Nuggets four games to one and the Eastern Conference champs Heat four games to two.

For those who opine the Lakers had an easier path to the Finals because the Clippers and Bucks couldn’t handle the loss of home court advantage and stress of the bubble, remember the Lakers won despite those challenges. But let’s look closer at why LeBron James, Anthony Davis, Frank Vogel, Rob Pelinka, and Jeanie Buss were the keys to the 2020 NBA Championship and why they have the Lakers once again on the verge of another dynasty:

1. LeBron James is still the best player and not slowing down.

After winning his fourth NBA championship and unanimous Finals MVP, there’s no longer any question 35-year old LeBron James is still the best player in the league and is showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. The level at which LeBron’s been playing leads many analysts to project he could easily continue to play until he is 40-years old, which means the Lakers’ championship window is much wider than originally thought.

LeBron’s on a mission to become the GOAT and now only needs to win two more NBA championships to tie Michael Jordan. As long as he stays healthy, the Lakers will be the unanimous favorites to win more championships.

2. Anthony Davis is now the best center and still not in his prime.

27-year old Anthony Davis’ elite performances during the playoffs have already elevated him to be the second best player in the league and obvious heir apparent as the best player on the planet once LeBron James retires. What’s even scarier for Lakers’ opponents is Davis is not even close to reaching his prime, is an unstoppable offensive player and the league’s best defensive player, and has no equal as the prototype modern NBA center.

Anthony Davis not only gives the Lakers the power of having league’s top two superstars and a bridge to greatness after LeBron retires but also the possibility of becoming an even better team as he reaches his prime.

3. Frank Vogel outcoached everybody with a flawed roster.

Frank Vogel may not have been the Lakers’ first choice as head coach but he’s transformed a flawed roster that lacked a reliable third scorer, second playmaker, and elite 3-point shooting into a dominant championship team. He accomplished that by leveraging the defensive talent of Anthony Davis and LeBron James and getting everybody on the team to totally buy in to a defense first mentality that powered the Lakers’ championship success.

Vogel’s mix of strong interpersonal skills and savvy technical expertise enabled him to gain the trust and confidence of LeBron and AD and give the Lakers a championship caliber foundation, culture, and chemistry.

4. Rob Pelinka built the best roster with options to get better.

Just as Frank Vogel was disrespected in the voting for COY, Rob Pelinka was ignored in the voting for EOY. But the Lakers’ championship has pundits rethinking the importance of Rob Pelinka’s role in the Lakers’ dominance. Pelinka was the not only the architect behind trading for AD but also the savvy builder of a veteran championship roster of unlikely contributors like Rajon Rondo, Dwight Howard, and Markieff Morris on a limited budget.

As reigning NBA champions, Pelinka has the Lakers perfectly positioned not only to make major upgrades to the current roster but also to have cap space after the next season to sign a third superstar to join LeBron and AD.

5. Jeanie Buss showed everybody she knows how to win.

Success or failure in any business or organization starts and ends with the boss and Jeanie Buss has shown with her decision to give the reigns of the Lakers’ franchise to Rob Pelinka she was the right choice to run the Lakers. The collaborative imprint she’s made on entire Lakers’ organization has turned what had been called dysfunction and disarray into competence and confidence and restored the franchise to its rightful place atop the NBA.

Jeanie has a long way to go to match her dad’s legacy as an owner but she shares his total commitment to winning that created the Magic and Kareem and Kobe and Shaq dynasties and could lead to a LeBron and AD dynasty.

In a league where traditional centers have been devalued and the Lakers’ tag team of JaVale McGee and Dwight Howard has been the exception, the time may have finally come for Frank Vogel to embrace the modern center.

In today’s NBA, traditional centers whose only job is to protect the rim and dunk the ball have become dinosaurs who can be played off the court by modern centers who’re more mobile and athletic and can shoot the three. Frank Vogel’s been on a mission to prove the Lakers can still win with a traditional center anchoring his defense and protecting the rim and he’s been able to pull it off for the most part up until he got to the playoffs.

Vogel’s conviction defense starts with protecting the rim and Anthony Davis’ preference to play the four to avoid the physical banging of playing the five have definitely been major factors in the Lakers playing traditional centers. But these playoffs have taught the Lakers playing a quicker and faster power forward who can defend and shoot the three like Markieff Morris alongside Davis at center can work and make them better offensively and defensively.

The playoffs have exposed traditional centers as liabilities on both ends of the court. Offensively, their presence in the paint and lack of gravity on the perimeter make it easy for defenses to pack the paint and protect the rim. Defensively, their inability to guard the perimeter makes them vulnerable against teams with centers who can stretch the floor and their lack of speed and mobility makes them easy prey for smaller players hunting switches.

While the Lakers played JaVale McGee or Dwight Howard at center 74% of the time during the regular season, those numbers dropped dramatically to 52% for the first three rounds of the playoffs and to only 29% for the Finals. Since McGee did not play and Howard posted a team worst defensive rating of 135.7 in last night’s game, it’s highly likely the Lakers will opt not to play either of their traditional centers in tomorrow night’s Finals Game 6.

In many ways, the evolution of the center position for Frank Vogel and the Lakers this season has been a microcosm of the center revolution that has taken over the modern NBA in the wake of the ascension of the 3-point shot. The Lakers are fortunate that they have the perfect prototype of the modern NBA center in Anthony Davis. What they need to figure out going forward is who would be the ideal front court partner to optimize and protect Davis.

Re-signing Morris is going to be important and there are matchups like Jokic where a physical defender like Dwight Howard could be critical, although he may be offered more as a free agent than the Lakers could be willing to pay. The Lakers may prefer to re-sign DeMarcus Cousins, who would give the Lakers a true stretch five and whom Anthony Davis loved playing with when both were on the Pelicans, than bringing back Dwight Howard.

The Lakers might also prioritize pursuing a young power forward/center like Christian Wood or Myles Turner, who would better complement Anthony Davis and catapult the Lakers’ offense and defense into the modern NBA. Wood or Turner would not only give the Lakers a starting lineup with five players who can shoot the three ball and defend the perimeter but also the two bigs Vogel’s alway preferred to anchor the defense and protect the rim.

Despite the need for a playmaker, the Lakers’ priority this offseason should be to replace their traditional centers with modern centers who would complement Anthony Davis and revolutionize their offense and defense.